Overview: Intensifying Conflict in Southern Yemen
Yemen’s long-running civil war has taken a dramatic turn in early 2026, as forces aligned with the internationally recognized government — backed by Saudi Arabia — successfully reclaimed strategic cities in the south from UAE-supported separatists known as the Southern Transitional Council (STC). The developments have sparked a rare rift between Gulf allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and raised concerns about Yemen’s internal stability and regional security.
Government Retakes Mukalla and Surrounding Provinces
On January 4, 2026, Yemeni government forces, supported by Saudi-aligned Homeland Shield units, retook control of Mukalla, the key port and capital of Hadramout province — a prize that had been under STC control since December 2025. These gains also extended across the neighboring al-Mahra governorate.
In an official statement, Rashad al-Alimi, head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), declared that Saudi-backed forces had achieved “record success” in regaining military and security positions in the region bordering Saudi Arabia.
Residents of Mukalla reportedly welcomed government troops as they entered the city, reflecting a swift shift in control after days of intense airstrikes and ground operations.
Saudi Airstrikes and Rising Casualties
The offensive was accompanied by a series of Saudi-led airstrikes targeting STC positions in Hadramout and other southern areas. According to STC officials, multiple air raids hit the al-Khasah military camp, killing at least seven fighters and injuring dozens more — the first such casualties reported in the recent escalation.
An Associated Press report confirmed fresh strikes on a military camp in Mukalla and surrounding sites, noting that Saudi warplanes had carried out operations as government forces advanced on separatist strongholds.
Gulf Rift: Saudi Arabia vs. UAE
The current crisis has exposed deeper divisions between two Gulf powers that had long cooperated on Yemen:
In response to the recent strikes, the UAE called for “restraint and wisdom,” rejecting Saudi claims that it supplied weapons to the separatists — though it acknowledged sending armored vehicles to support its own forces previously.
This diplomatic tension highlights a proxy dimension to a conflict already shaped by multiple actors, including Iran-linked Houthi rebels controlling much of northern Yemen. Analysts now warn this could deepen divisions within the anti-Houthi coalition.
Human Impact and Local Tensions
While strategic cities change hands, the human cost remains severe:
The Yemeni government accused the STC of imposing movement restrictions in Aden, calling them “a grave violation of the constitution” and insisting on respecting citizens’ freedom of movement.
What Comes Next?
Tensions are not just military but political. Saudi Arabia has invited southern factions to dialogue in Riyadh in hopes of forging a peaceful settlement — a move welcomed by the STC’s leaders as a possible opportunity to safeguard southern aspirations
However, analysts caution this may mark the beginning of an even more complex phase in Yemen’s long conflict, where competing visions for the country’s future clash as fiercely as its battlefields.
